The LTTE Retreats

We are convinced that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is now weakened.
We should not pass this ethnic problem to the next generation. – Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, September 27, 2007

With more than 4,000 deaths in 2007, Sri Lanka continues to be one of the most violent theatres of conflict in the world. Worse, the conflict can be expected to become the more intractable over the coming year.

In 2007, the security forces (SFs) continued to gain immense military victories and appear to have cornered the LTTE, so much so that the outfit, once controlling a large swathe of land in the Eastern Province and ruling the Northern Province, is looking for international intervention to save it from being totally wiped out of the map of the Island country. That the LTTE has been on the run and at its weakest ever in the history of its fight against the Sri Lankan State was also reflected in the annual Mahaveerar Thinam (Heroes’ Day) speech delivered by its chief Velupillai Prabhakaran on November 27, 2007. Instead of his customary war rhetoric, he complained that the "partisan and unjust conduct" of the international community "severely undermined confidence of Tamil people". Claiming, absurdly, that the LTTE has been ‘fighting non-violently’ and through ‘armed struggle’ for a very long time against national oppression, Prabhakaran asserted that the Tigers were not "terrorists committing blind acts of violence impelled by racist or religious fanaticism".

Meanwhile, the SFs continued their march into LTTE-held areas and are close to Wanni now. On December 7, 2007, Defence Spokesperson and Minister, Keheliya Rambukwella, informed Parliament that Kilinochchi was ‘within sight’, and therefore the Government would pursue the target of eradicating terrorism to create a democratic environment. The Minister said that the Government had won unprecedented military victories after 30 years of war and should not relinquish this advantageous position, adding, "If we let this chance go, the country will slip back to the position that existed 30 years ago."

Although there is not much of a difference between total casualties for the years 2006 and 2007, the breakup of fatalities clearly indicates a steady strengthening of state Forces. 2007 saw a dramatic decline in both civilian and SF fatalities, and a sharp escalation in terrorists killed, as compared to 2006. Fatalities in Sri Lanka, 2006-2007 Year

Civilians Security Force Terrorists Total 2006 949 752 2219 3920 2007* 515 483 3041 4039 * Till December 18. (Source: Institute for Conflict Management database)

Government troops, which commenced their operations in July 2006 in Mavil Aru, captured Vakarai Town in Batticaloa District on January 19, 2007. Further, on July 11, President Mahinda Rajapakse declared that the military had captured Thoppigala, the last remaining pocket of influence of the LTTE in the East, which had remained under effective rebel control since 1994. Earlier, the military had announced that its soldiers had reached the LTTE’s Baron’s Camp in Thoppigala and had declared, "With this victory, troops have captured the ‘nerve centre’ of the LTTE terrorists in their last stronghold in the Eastern province."

Validating the Sri Lanka Army (SLA) Commander Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka’s January 2, 2007, assertion that the Army would liberate the Eastern Province from the LTTE's hold and then proceed to liberate the Northern Province, the SFs then turned their attention to the North. The Army Commander had claimed "After eradicating the Tigers from the East, full strength would be used to rescue the North." Fighting there continues, with an average of 10 LTTE militants killed daily. The firefights along the currently held Forward Defence Line, both in the Jaffna Peninsula, north of the Elephant Pass, and along the mainland, north of Vavuniya, are now a continuous process, and SLA sources indicate that ‘long range operations’ deep into LTTE territory have also been initiated in a campaign of attrition intended to weaken the rebels in their final bastion. The Government, however, will have to strengthen its hold in the Eastern Province where, according to media reports, the Tamileela Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP), the LTTE breakaway faction led by ‘Colonel’ Karuna, is attempting to consolidate power in Batticaloa and surrounding areas. On March 11, Karuna had accepted that he had areas under his control and claimed that his group was "involved in civil administration" in the Eastern Province of Sri Lanka. However, according to an October 19 report, after a survey of the civil administration of the East, Karu Jayasuriya, the Minister of Public Administration and Home Affairs, disclosed that the civil administration of East will be almost completely established by January 1, 2008.

In a decisive incident, on November 2, S. P. Thamilselvan, the political wing leader of the LTTE and its de facto number two, was killed in a Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF) air strike at Thiruvaiaru, a location three kilometers South of Kilinochchi. The attack was based on ‘very reliable information’ identifying the location as a meeting place of LTTE leaders, giving the marauding forces their biggest success in the ongoing battle. Simultaneously, fighter jets also pounded a Black Tiger camp in the East of Iranamadu. Five other leaders ‘Lt. Col.’ Anpumani alias Alex, ‘Major’ Mihuthan, ‘Major’ Nethagy, ‘Lieutenant’ Adchgivel and ‘Lieutenant’ Vahakai Kumaran were also killed in the air strike. Their meeting place was subsequently confirmed as an international communications centre run by ‘Lt. Col.’ Alex, as well as a centre for logistics, arms procurement, fund raising and operational coordination. Following the attack, Defence Secretary Rajapaksa declared that the military would target the rest of the LTTE leaders and, "When the time comes only, we take them one by one."

In addition to its battlefield reverses, the LTTE has also been trying to cope with the international pressure exerted by countries across the globe, with reports claiming that the LTTE’s activities were no longer confined to Sri Lanka. There was some evidence of emerging commercial links between the LTTE and al Qaeda. On May 17, the Sri Lankan Ambassador to the USA, Bernard Goonetileke, stated that the LTTE has stolen 130,000 Norwegian passports and sold them to the "highest bidders" including al Qaeda operatives. He said, "One of them [LTTE cadre] surfaced with 700 of the stolen passports in Thailand and got caught to the police." During the year, there have been some arrests of LTTE top leaders in various countries, including:

April 6: The leader of the LTTE’s branch in France since 2003, Nadarajah Mathinthiran alias ‘Parathi’ and Thuraisamy Jeyamorthy alias ‘Jeya’, who were in charge of the money collections in France, were among 17 LTTE suspects arrested by the French authorities.

April 25: The ‘director’ of the LTTE in New York, Karunakaran Kandasamy, was arrested by the FBI in Queens. He was arrested on Federal charges of providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization.

May 1: Two LTTE leaders in Australia – Sivaraj Yathevan, in charge of Eela Murasu, a Tamil community paper, and his aide Arooran Vignanamoorthy – who had access to AUD 526,000 in two bank accounts between August 2001 and December 2005, were arrested during raids conducted on 10 premises in Melbourne’s east — at Vermont, Glen Waverley, Mount Waverley, Dandenong and East Burwood — and in the Sydney suburbs of Toongabbie and Parramatta.

The depleted LTTE has, nevertheless, carried out several lethal attacks in Sri Lanka (including the first ever aerial attack, followed by four others, mainly targeting the capital Colombo. There was an ill-considered Government backlash in response, and on June 1, Tamils from the north and east staying in various lodges without jobs in Colombo were asked to go back to their homes in view of the security situation. This briefly escalated ethnic polarization, which could well have been exploited by the LTTE, but the Government quickly realized its mistake, after the intervention of the Courts, and performed a U-turn, asking the Tamils to stay on.

Some of the major LTTE attacks in 2007 included:

January 5: At least six passengers were killed and 63 were wounded in a bomb blast inside a bus bound for Giriulla from Nittambuwa in the Gampaha District.

January 6: At least 16 persons were killed and 40 injured, as a second explosion occurred in a bus in a span of less than 24 hours in the Galle District, over 80 kilometres from the national capital Colombo.

February 27: Italy’s Ambassador, Pio Miriani, and US Ambassador Robert Blake were injured in mortar firing by the LTTE, targeting an air movement carrying Disaster Management Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe, along with a few foreign diplomats in Batticaloa.

March 26: Carrying out their first ever air attack on the main Sri Lankan Air Force base in Katunayake at Colombo, the LTTE killed three Air Force personnel and injured 17 others.

April 29: An LTTE aircraft bombed oil and gas storage facilities in and around Colombo. One of the two bombs dropped on Shell’s Muthurajawela Gas Storage Facility caused minor damage to the fire guard equipment while the other damaged the water supply. The two bombs dropped on the Kolonnawa Oil Storage Depot failed to explode.

May 28: Seven civilians were killed and 42 persons, including 36 civilians, sustained injuries, in an LTTE-triggered claymore mine explosion at Belekkade Junction in the Rathmalana area of the capital Colombo. October 22: Elite Army troops of the Special Forces confronted LTTE cadres who infiltrated and carried out a suicide attack on the SLAF base at Anuradhapura and evicted them from the premises killing 20 militants. Nine SF personnel, including two officers, were killed and 20 others wounded in the encounter. Subsequently the LTTE carried out an aerial attack, dropping two shells damaging two MI 24 helicopters parked in a hangar. Another BELL-212 helicopter, which was to reinforce SLAF fighter craft resisting LTTE air movement, had to crash-land at Doramadalawa area, closer to Mihintale, due to a technical fault, killing both pilots and two gunners. This was the first time the outfit had carried out a combined air and ground attack.

November 28: The EPDP leader and Minister for Social Welfare, Douglas Devananda, escaped unhurt when a polio-affected woman suicide cadre of the LTTE blew herself up at his office at Isipathana Road in the Narahenpita area of Colombo.

At least 19 civilians were killed and 35 others injured as a suspected parcel bomb exploded near a popular fashion store at Nugegoda junction near Colombo around 5.55 pm.

There were six suicide attacks carried out by the LTTE in 2007 as against 12 in the previous year.

The LTTE has collected rich resources for its campaigns. Sri Lankan Foreign Secretary Palitha Kohona stated, on May 1, 2007, that the LTTE internationally raised approximately USD 10 million to USD 30 million a month, of which almost 20 to 30 per cent came from Australia. Corroborating these claims, the London-based Jane’s Intelligence Review stated that the LTTE had not only created one of the most sophisticated insurgencies in the world but also has an annual ‘profit margin’ of USD 200 to USD 300 million. Despite the Government proscribing the Tamil Rehabilitation Organisation on November 22, having earlier frozen its accounts, the LTTE retains various sources to replenish its coffers.

The ongoing war has had an adverse impact on social, political and economic conditions in Sri Lanka. According to the Minority Rights Group International 2007 report, human rights in Sri Lanka reached a ‘crisis point’ in 2007, with numerous reports of extra-judicial killings, disappearances and abductions. The Sri Lankan human rights groups reported that some 662 people had been killed and 540 people have disappeared between January–August 2007. A vast majority of them were Tamils, while some were Muslims. The UNHCR office in Sri Lanka stated, on October 26, that 190,669 individuals of 51,908 families had been displaced in 2007 due to the ethnic conflict. The highest number of displacements was reported from Kilinochchi District – 48,512 persons. Another 38,230 individuals were displaced in the Batticaloa District while 32,323 individuals were displaced in Mullaitivu District. On August 17, the Japan International Cooperation Agency, which was due to donate medical equipment worth millions of rupees to hospitals in the North, called off their mission due to protection money demanded by the LTTE, a clear indication of the worsening situation. A South Asian Watch group on the use of small arms disclosed, on October 28, that there were over 1.3 million illegal weapons in use in Sri Lanka, adding that the availability of illegal small arms had led to the escalation of the rate of crime on the island.

Inflation in Sri Lanka is currently pegged at 17 percent, the unemployment rate is 6.2 percent, there is a budget deficit of 8.4 per cent and Defence spending is at USD 1.3 billion. The Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR) has fallen by around three percent this year against the US dollar, while other currencies in the region have risen. The tourism industry has taken a hammering, and there is widespread apprehension among the people of difficult times ahead.

On the political front, the Southern consensus which had emerged in October 2006, finally came to a disappointing end on January 29 with the main opposition group, the United National Party's (UNP) announcement that the political pact it signed with the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) in October 2006 was invalid in the aftermath of President Rajapakse’s induction of 19 defectors from the UNP into the Government. More recently, on December 12, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress leader Rauff Hakeem said that he and three other parliamentarians had decided to leave the Government as it had failed to guarantee the rights of the Muslim community. These are a major setback to the Rajapakse regime which had, in the fag end of 2006, garnered the support of Southern political parties to deal with the LTTE.

On a positive note, despite the upswing in violence, the country expected to record its fastest growth in nearly three decades, according to the Central Bank. With USD 530 million already received in foreign direct investment (FDI) by August, total FDI is projected to substantially exceed the total of USD 600 million in 2006. Foreign reserves were up at USD 2.8 billion in April 2007, from USD 2.5 billion in April 2006. With vast stretches of land cleared of the LTTE in the North and East, agricultural activities are bound to increase. Government control over these areas can enhance trade because, being an island nation, most of the trade activities are carried on over the seas, on which the LTTE had greater control till its recent reverses. Meanwhile, some political parties which had been intimidated into passivity over the past years have resumed their activities in the country. On April 20, the Defense Ministry said that the Eelam Revolutionary Organisation, a mainstream Tamil political party, which had been silenced since 1990 after continuous death threats from the LTTE, decided to actively restore functions as a democratic Tamil Front.

There are no prospects of peace emanating from anywhere. On April 12, Defense Secretary Rajapakse declared that Sri Lanka's cease-fire had "no meaning" and that it was only being left in place to satisfy the international community. Further, on May 31 Defense spokesperson and Minister Rambukwella stated that the Ceasefire Agreement, which now holds only on paper after breaking down on the ground last year, no longer reflected reality. Earlier, on February 12 President Mahinda Rajapakse, in an interview with the BBC, had said that the Government's peace pact with the LTTE was a mistake. "Today we realise we have made a mistake. Through the peace pact, we've demarcated areas called LTTE controlled areas, and they have taken over the rights of the people through this pact. In the LTTE controlled areas, no political parties can function, people cannot walk anywhere in freedom, and the children are being forced to join the armed forces of the LTTE. These rights should be given back to the people."

With the public opinion progressively hardening in favour of continued military operations, more bloodshed can be expected in Sri Lanka, already among the most violent places in South Asia.