Good intelligence prevents major calamities

A book that seems to have touched raw nerves is ‘India’s External Intelligence: Secrets of Research and Analysis Wing (RAW)’ (www.manaspublications.com) by Major General (Retd) V.K. Singh. It discusses ‘several lacunae in the functioning of the country’s top intelligence agency’ and calls for ‘an increase in accountability of our top intelligence agencies’ since ‘the Indian taxpayer has a right to know how his money is spent’. And, now, the book’s publisher and the author have come under the lens of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI).

How does the ‘right to know’ work with regard to intelligence? “Most countries have a 30-year period after which all documents are automatically declassified. If this were not so, we would have never come to know about Enigma – the Ultra Secret code being used by Germany in World War II which the Allies had broken,” answered Mr Singh, when recently interacting with Business Line, over the email.

“In India, even the 1962 Henderson-Brooks report (about the Sino-Indian War) is still classified, as are the war diaries of 1965 and 1971 wars. Our Army officers still study World War II campaigns, since our own are classified. Most of them, like me, will retire before independent India’s military history is written,” he added on a wry note.

Mr Singh, former Chief Signal Officer of the Western Army, with a career spanning 37 years in the Army, served in the Cabinet Secretariat (Research and Analysis Wing) between 2000 and 2004. His current research is on the ‘Contribution of the Armed Forces to the Freedom Movement in India’.

Excerpts from the interview.

What is ‘intelligence’?

Intelligence, in simple terms, means ‘useful’ information. For a company applying for a contract, information about its competitor’s bid becomes intelligence. For a young woman, information about her fiancé’s income, girl friends and drinking/smoking habits becomes intelligence. For a nation, information about an enemy country’s military strength becomes intelligence.

Is there a taxonomy of ‘intelligence’?

Intelligence has two broad divisions – HUMINT (human intelligence) and SIGINT (signals intelligence). HUMINT relies on intelligence obtained from human sources, verbally or in written form. SIGINT can be further divided into COMINT (communication intelligence) and ELINT (electronic intelligence).

COMINT refers to technical and intelligence information derived from foreign communications by other than the intended recipients. ELINT refers to intelligence derived from non-communication electromagnetic radiations from foreign sources.

Another term is IMINT (imagery intelligence), in which the source of intelligence is satellite imagery. In day-to-day working, the term SIGINT is often used for intelligence gained from interception of voice, data or facsimile (fax) signals being transmitted by electronic means, as well as through the Internet.

How has intelligence evolved in India?

Intelligence is the second oldest profession in the world. India has been a leader in the field, from the time of Chanakya. During the British Raj, the CID (Criminal Investigation Department) in India was rated as among the best intelligence agencies in the World. In 1914-15, over 5,000 Ghadrites were sent to India to foment violence and incite uprisings. Almost all were caught soon after their arrival, some even before they embarked from the US, Canada or Hong Kong. In 1943-45, many intelligence agents were sent by Subhas Chandra Bose’s INA to India, by submarine or boat. All were caught and eliminated by the CID.

Who are the major players in Indian intelligence?

The major players are Research and Analysis Wing, Defence Intelligence Agency, Intelligence Bureau (IB), National Technical Research Organisation, Joint Cipher Bureau, All India Radio Monitoring Service, Joint Intelligence Committee, Signals Intelligence Directorate, Aviation Research Centre, Directorate of Air Intelligence, Directorate of Navy Intelligence, and Directorate of Revenue Intelligence. See also Wikipedia, which lists ‘intelligence agencies’ country-wise.

On the origins of RAW, and its role.

RAW was established on September 21, 1968 as part of the Cabinet Secretariat, reporting directly to the Prime Minister. Rameshwar Nath Kao was the first head of the RAW, with K. Sankaran Nair as his deputy.

The role of RAW is:

· Collection, production, analysis and assessment of all form of external intelligence of interest to India, in political, military, economic, scientific and technological fields.

· Conducting special operations abroad, including psychological warfare.

· Act as nodal agency for counter intelligence operations outside India.

· Liaison with foreign intelligence and security agencies in India and abroad.

Has the organisation become more relevant in today’s context, owing to greater threat perception?

It is difficult to say that there is greater threat perception today than in the past. Within 25 years of gaining independence, India fought four wars – one with China and three with Pakistan. Today, the threat of war appears remote. However, the threat that has increased is of terrorism. Intelligence never becomes irrelevant, in war or peace. To that extent, RAW is as relevant today as it was when it was establishment, nothing more.

What have been the significant milestones in RAW’s evolution?

I cannot think of any milestone. RAW has undergone a process of gradual evolution, increasing in size and reach. When it was established, HUMINT had primacy. Today, TECHINT provides the major share of RAW’s inputs.

How does the Indian outfit compare against similar institutions in other countries?

If you ask RAW officers, they will say they are the best. The best judge is always an adversary. Most Pakistani sources feel RAW is quite good, which is high praise indeed. Similarly, we feel that ISI is good at its job. I would not place RAW in the same class as CIA, MI 6 or Mossad, but it is perhaps better than the intelligence agencies of most developing countries.

Have there been costly mistakes that could have been avoided?

There have been many mistakes, some of which I have mentioned in my book. In fact, B Raman has given details of most of the costly mistakes of RAW. I will list some of them: Kargil, Mujibur Rehman’s assassination in 1975, Arms drop in Purulia, promulgation of Emergency in 1975, Operation Blue Star, support to LTTE leading to IPKF fiasco, and incorrect advice to Rajiv Gandhi in the Bofors cover up.

Can technology be better leveraged by intelligence forces while at the same time assuring individual privacy for the citizen? How?

This is a conundrum that all intelligence agencies face. To collect crucial intelligence, the individual privacy of the citizen often has to be given short shrift. This is applicable mostly to internal intelligence agencies such as IB. RAW collects most of its intelligence abroad, using means that are naturally illegal in those countries. One country that uses technology effectively without trespassing on the citizens’ rights is the US, where the laws in this regard are very strict.

And its resources are extensive?

Yes. The US has resources that are mind-boggling and cannot be matched by other nations. They have hundreds of satellites that cover every part of the globe. This enables them to photograph the area of interest using high-resolution cameras. They can also listen in on almost every radio transmission, any where in the world. Their code breaking capability is phenomenal, by virtue of their computing ability using super computers.

Is the human element still critical?

Yes, and it will always remain so. Technology can increase one’s reach, speed up collation and processing and improve code-breaking capability. However, analysis has to be done by humans. The quality of the end product depends to a large extent on human skills.

What are the metrics for assessing the effectiveness of intelligence operations?

There are no yardsticks – only successes and failures. Good intelligence prevents major calamities, about which most people remain unaware. However, failures always come to light. Today, the IB and RAW, both of which are offspring of the CID, cannot match its performance, in spite of their large size and enhancement in technological capability. The CID relied almost entirely on HUMINT and still did a good job.

Why?

The answer lies in the type of leadership and work culture of our intelligence agencies, which are now just like any other government department. Until and unless they can build up the ethos and pride of an elite organisation, their performance will remain substandard.

How does RAW help counter terrorism?

This is a high priority area for RAW, as it is for IB and other agencies. It is difficult to get adequate or timely intelligence about terrorist strikes, like 9/11 in the US or the Mumbai blasts. But it is possible to keep track of terrorists. After all, a terrorist is not created overnight. He is recruited and trained before being used in a major attack. Most terrorists are trained in foreign countries. They also get funds, arms and explosives from across the border. Intelligence about these, if obtained in time, can prevent terrorist attacks.

Has spying lost its edge with better modes of information gathering in use?

On the contrary, spying is more important than ever. With greater use of technology, only the methods of gathering intelligence have changed.

(http://www.hindu.com)