A revolutionary war must achieve two things if it is to succeed - the acceptance and support of the people it represents and a military victory over the opposing armed forces, the first being by far the more important. Mao Tse Tung, the original proponent of guerrilla warfare (against the US-supported Kuo Mintang Chinese government) drew the famous simile of the revolutionary fighters as the fish and the people the water the fish needs to survive. His three-phase campaign comprises: winning the hearts and minds of the people through massive propaganda in Phase one; employing guerrilla warfare tactics to whittle down the security forces in Phase two; and totally defeating the security forces in Phase three. The final achievement is setting up a civil administration and establishing a permanent armed force for the security of the captured areas. During this entire period, the population must be subjected to massive propaganda to make it quiescent and accept the new regime.
Having lost the sympathy of the Tamil people by their murderous annihilation of the Tamil intelligentsia in 1976-77, the LTTE started a massive political campaign in 1982 to win back the sympathy and support of the Tamils. As they had alienated the local Tamils in Jaffna and Sri Lanka, they aimed their propaganda at the International Tamil diaspora, starting in 1982 with the Tamil students in London. They were ably assisted by a certain Tamil journalist in Tamil Nadu (where they had taken refuge from the Sri Lankan the security forces). In this, either by design or by accident, the LTTE was following Mao's doctrine for revolutionary war.
The territory granted to the LTTE by a foolish Prime Minister enabled it to bypass the second and third phases and begin setting up a civil administration, build permanent base camps and training camps for its armed forces free from interference by the security forces. Thanks to that single stupid act by that Prime Minister, the LTTE was able to leave its guerrilla phase and become a standing force with administrative support, complete with Flag Marches, banners and all the trappings of a regular armed force.
In the history of warfare, no army has ever been able to regain ground lost to revolutionary forces after they have achieved the final aim of setting up a civil administration. In fact, the only instance when a revolutionary war has failed is in Malaya in 1955, when General Templar of the British army defeated the Chinese insurgents by denying them the basic requirement of its supporting population base. This he did by massively re-locating entire Chinese villages, so that the Chinese insurgents were unable to obtain material support or evade the British/Malayan security forces. That is, he removed the water the fish needed to survive, and he did so during Phase two of the revolutionary campaign, and the campaign fizzled to a stop.
When you view the fall of Thoppigala and the complete capitulation of the LTTE forces defending the area in the light of this historical background, you will begin to see the real magnitude of the victory the Sri Lanka armed forces have achieved. They have not merely captured Thoppigala, but they have created history by reversing an almost successful revolutionary war and sending the insurgents back to Phase two. This has never, ever, happened in the past, anywhere in the world. Hats off to our soldiers, sailors and airmen, and the architects of this victory. True, Sri Lanka has a long way to go to achieve totals victory, but the back of the beast has been broken, its morale is shattered, and it is fighting its last battles.
The other, equally important reason why the LTTE will be eventually defeated is that they have failed to win the hearts and minds of the people. They still have their worldwide propaganda organization and the support of the Tamil diaspora brainwashed by their propaganda, but that no longer has any effect on the people that matter, the Tamil population in the areas left in their control.
The one single reason for this is the conscription of children. However much the parents are cajoled by anti-government propaganda, you cannot convince them their child is required for a so-called "higher" cause called Eelam. To a parent, their children are the highest things that matters. This has resulted in turning the apathy of the Tamil people to antipathy. The water the LTTE fish swim in is now irretrievable poisoned. That water has also greatly diminished. Where earlier they had about 200,000 people from whom to obtain sustenance, the loss of the East has more than halved the population base as the East had the larger population. The LTTE is now trying to survive in a diminished population base of less than 75,000, most of who are antagonistic to them. Of course they still have the foolish and remote support of the brainwashed diaspora, but that does not count for their survival in Sri Lanka.
You have heard the Defence Secretary talking about winning the hearts and minds of the people in the East. That is what is going to win the war for us, because a satisfied population, a population that feels safe and secure among the inevitable security force domination and presence in the area, which will be, must be, diametrically different to the LTTE propaganda about the security forces, will reinforce the victory, and when word of this gets back to the Tamil people in the North, they will be even more disillusioned with the LTTE. Let us hope that those who implement the hearts and minds campaign do not merely pay lip service to the program, but is sincere in the way it is handled.
There are several precautions the governments must take in re-settling the East. The first is with regard to land holding. Before the LTTE was given control of the East, there were as many Sinhalese in the area as Tamil, and the Sinhalese and Muslims together outnumbered the Tamil population. It is absolutely essential that the Sinhalese should return to their old homesteads and the previous population balance re-established. The First stage of the Mahaweli Diversion Scheme and the Maduro Oya scheme has made this area a farmer's dream. In fact, long before the LTTE, and even before the water was available, Tamil politicians began settling Tamil farmers in the area, which led to a dark chapter in the Mahaweli scheme.
The Venerable Seelananda Thera of Thoppigala was the first to see the danger to the Sinhalese in these Tamil settlements, and journeyed to Colombo to camp outside the Mahaweli Authority buildings until he was able to get the Mahaweli Development officers to perform their duties properly by allocating land on an equal basis to Sinhalese, Tamil and Muslim applicants. Unfortunately for the Sinhalese, the JR Jayawardene government, in search of Tamil votes, decided appeases the Tamil politicians and ordered a pliant Volunteer (territorial) unit of the Army led by one Ben Silva to chase the Sinhalese away at gunpoint. Later on, the President's son, Ravi Jayawardene went against his father's wishes (not for the first time), to try and redress this mistake, and many Sinhalese farmers who were able to settle in this fertile area have to thank him for his courage. These settlements continued under the Venerable Seelananda's patronage until he was murdered by the LTTE.
Many of these Sinhalese and Muslim farmers have since been chased away by the LTTE. It is essential therefore that in exercising the Hearts and Minds program, the interests and rights of the Sinhalese and Muslim farmers is not forgotten. If Sinhalese and Muslim farmers are not willing to risk their families until security is assured, their land and land allocated to them must be held until they are ready to take over the land. If this is not done, the Hearts and Minds program will succeed in doing what the LTTE failed to do - that is, create a Tamil-dominated East.
The other precaution is with regard to the Karuna faction. However 'helpful' they have been, they have their own agenda, and that agenda is not with the government. This group must be neutralized as they will remain an enigma and thorn in the side of the security forces. One of the lessons the last twenty years has taught is that security forces must be permanently based in a given area, rather than being rotated at intervals as used to be in the past, and those security forces must be recruited from the area so that they identify with the people. In predominantly Tamil areas, the Security Forces must be predominantly Tamil, and in Muslim areas they must be Muslim. This prevents the "occupation forces" mentality that is so harmful to relations between the security forces and the public they serve. The same is true of the civil Police. If this policy is to be implemented, the Regiments that are to be based in this area may be able to absorb members of the Karuna faction, as security force duties are the only type of employment open to them, and for which they have any training.
Yet another important precaution is to ensure that evangelists in the guise of NGOs do not begin their sordid work of capitalizing on the susceptibilities of those who have suffered under the LTTE (as they did after the Tsunami) under the pretext of providing aid. All activities of dubious NGOs must be monitored. People must be warned to report any attempts at conversion of Buddhists, Hindus and Muslims. Any such NGOs must be forcibly removed and debarred from returning to Sri Lanka as India has already done.
The LTTE has already commenced sabotage operations against redevelopment in the East, the first victim being the Chief Secretary of the Eastern Province, Mr Herath Abeywira, who was shot to death by a LTTE hit man. While stringent security may be able to prevent similar incidents, even more can be done through proper Intelligence, particularly with the public becoming increasingly secure and comfortable with the presence of the security forces. When suspects are arrested and interrogated, it must be conducted in a lawful manner as harsh handling creates more terrorists.
The Sri Lanka army has regained its mettle, and there will be no holding them back. This government, however much it professes its willingness to negotiate, must not accede to another ceasefire, unless it is on condition that the LTTE first lays down its arms, disbands all its armed forces including their so called sea tigers and suicide bombers. This may very well be the case as long as the President continues to listen to his chief adviser, his own brother, who has had first hand experience of the effects of such ceasefires. As their inevitable end nears, the LTTE will resort to increasingly drastic measures, and the country should be ready to experience a spate of suicide bombings and sabotage.
Nevertheless, the LTTE has made a grave mistake by failing to win the hearts and minds of the people among whom they must exist and by doing so have flouted the most important principle of revolutionary war. While they may yet command, by intimidation, the support of the worldwide Tamil diaspora, their days in Sri Lanka are surely numbered.
(http://www.asiantribune.com/index.php?q=node/6819)
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