KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 4 (AFP) — While some world leaders have hailed the re-election of President George W. Bush as a victory against terrorism, experts caution that his iron-fisted approach has fuelled the flames of anti-American sentiment among Muslims.
Bush’s foreign policies had increased rather than reduced the risk of global terrorism, several analysts said Thursday. But they suggested that in his second term he might recognise the need to change his strategy, particularly on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
"President Bush himself may realise the approach he has been taking may not be all that successful, because there is general agreement that the US, their allies and their friends face a much graver threat than before the September 11 attacks," said terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna.
"He realises that without the support of the Europeans, without the support of the Asian and Middle Eastern countries, especially the Muslim countries, he cannot persist."
Hardline Muslims "will certainly be angry" over Bush’s re-election, said Gunaratna, associate professor at the Singapore-based Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies and author of a book on the Al-Qaeda terror network.
But for Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden "it really doesn’t matter whether it is (losing candidate John) Kerry or Bush," Gunaratna told AFP.
"The hatred (among Muslims) is not towards one president, the hatred is towards the United States because of its policies on Israel," he said.
"I think that President Bush and his advisers have gradually come to realise it is a core issue that needs to be resolved.
"It has been made so clear to him and his advisers and I think if they are not going to take that into consideration in their strategic calculations the United States and their allies will continue to suffer, perhaps in a much more grave way."
In Asia, the Al-Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiyah terror network remained capable of mounting attacks, "but I doubt very much that they will attack because Bush has been re-elected; they will attack because that is their strategy," Gunaratna said.
Clive Williams, director of terrorism studies at the Australian National University, said that from Al-Qaeda’s point of view Bush’s re-election "is quite a positive development because the mistake the Americans made in going into Iraq has opened up a lot of opportunities for them."
Williams said he believed Bush’s policies would continue to drive more Muslims into the ranks of militant groups.
"The US will be seen to be continuing to be a strong backer of Israel. It’ll obviously do more of the same in Iraq, which I think has been counterproductive because the US is winning the battles and losing the war there."
Singapore-based security analyst Andrew Tan said there was a chance Bush would moderate his policies during his second term.
"I think most non-Americans and most of America’s allies would have preferred a change, given that the first Bush administration made a number of strategic errors in Iraq and elsewhere which have alienated Muslims and complicated the war on global terror," he said.
However, "given the sobering experience of Iraq and all the problems that have cropped up since," the second Bush administration might adjust its strategy.
"The war on terror has to take into account political, economic and social factors and the second Bush administration will I think gradually move beyond unilateralism and the one-dimensional (military) approach to a more multi-dimensional and multilateral approach," Tan said.
