The resumption of the conflict in December 2005 and its intensification since late-July 2006, particularly in the Eastern Province, has resulted in loss of livelihoods to hundreds of thousands of people due to displacements and security-related restrictions on their vocations. Various journalists and humanitarian organisations within the country and outside have highlighted this unfolding human tragedy. However, there are no estimations done so far about the extent of loss of livelihoods due to mass displacements and security-related restrictions. It is clearly evident that there is an ongoing tension between the prerogatives of national security and human security in the context of a high-intensity civil war.
Since the Eastern Province is a coastal province and intense fighting took place along the coast from mid-2006 to mid-2007, undoubtedly fishing is the worst affected occupation in all three districts of the East. In addition, agriculture sector is also affected due to displacements, rise in the prices of inputs, and lack of market accessibility. Further, trade, both wholesale and retail, is also severely affected due to transport problems, numerous security checkpoints, general insecurity that keeps away shoppers, and the rise in cost of living that reduces the purchasing power of consumers.
The objective of this appraisal using qualitative survey methods was to undertake a rapid estimation of the extent of loss of output in selected occupations in selected areas in each of the three districts, viz. Ampara, Batticaloa, and Trincomalee. The pilot study estimated the extent of loss of livelihoods in the agriculture, fisheries, and trade sectors in selected areas within each of the districts of the Eastern Province. Thus, the pilot study assessed the loss of output (volume), loss of income (value), change in the prices of produce, market accessibility, problems encountered in livelihood activities, and alternative sources of livelihoods of 62 respondents engaged in farming, fishing, and trading. The sample may be representative of other farmers, fisherpersons, and traders in the East, but is too small to lend itself to meaningful quantitative analysis.
Methodology
A random sample survey was conducted among the affected communities of paddy farmers, fishmongers, and traders in all three districts. The pilot survey was conducted through semi-structured questionnaires for each of the three occupations covered. Thus, questions were open-ended. Altogether 62 questionnaire-based interviews were conducted in the three districts – Ampara 20, Batticaloa 20, and Trincomalee 22. By occupation, 23 fishmongers, 22 paddy cultivators, and 17 traders were interviewed.
The analysis is based on the responses of this small sample. Broader generalisations and conclusions await a larger survey if one is possible under the circumstances. Further, since fishing and paddy cultivation are seasonal occupations it is difficult to gauge the changes at any particular point of time. However, this pilot study could form the basis for further exploration of issues highlighted and discussed herein. This study was undertaken during the later half of August 2007, which is a very short time period for any empirical study.
Survey results
This section outlines and analyses the pilot survey results under six different variables.
Change in the volume of output
Due to mass displacements, particularly in Batticaloa and Trincomalee districts, productive activities are severely disturbed. The respondents were asked about their average production/output prior to the resumption of the conflict in 2006 and the current level. Fishing is the most affected livelihood activity, and Trincomalee is the most affected district.
In the agriculture sector, among the paddy cultivators interviewed, paddy output dropped by 40% in Trincomalee district, but in Ampara and Batticaloa districts there is hardly any change. In the fisheries sector, whilst fish catch declined significantly in Trincomalee and Ampara districts, the decline was marginal in Batticaloa district. Among the fishermen interviewed, the daily average fish catches dropped by 64% in Trincomalee, by 29% in Ampara, and by just 4% in Batticaloa. In the trade sector also, among the traders interviewed in Trincomalee district, since the resumption of the conflict, the average number of customers per day declined by one-third. In Batticaloa the decline was 13%, and in Ampara the drop was just 5%.
The foregoing figures indicate that Trincomalee is the worst affected district in the Eastern Province due to the resumption of the conflict.
Change in the value of output
In terms of value of output Trincomalee appears to be the worst affected. The other two districts have, in fact, increased their value of output/turnover, except fishing in Ampara
In the agriculture sector, paddy output in value increased marginally by 4% in Ampara district, and considerably by 10% in Batticaloa district. However, paddy output dropped by 24% in value terms in Trincomalee district among respondents. The increase in the average value of paddy output in Ampara and Batticaloa is due to higher price fetched as a result of lower output/supply. In Trincomalee also, the drop in the average value of paddy output (-24%) is lower than the drop in the average volume of output (-40%), which indicates that the higher price has partially offset the decline in output.
The average fishmongers in Trincomalee district has declined by 59% compared to the pre-conflict times. In Ampara, the drop was 10% in value. However, in Batticaloa district, the average value of output increased considerably by 21%. It appears that the higher price of fish due to the decline in catching has partially compensated for the loss of output in all three districts. In Batticaloa, the average fishermen increased by 21%, while the average in volume dropped marginally by 4%, which indicates that the higher price has more than offset the drop in output.
The daily average turnover among the traders dropped significantly by 35% in Trincomalee district. However, the daily average turnover increased considerably by 16% in Ampara and by 10% in Batticaloa. The drops in the average volume of customers (-33%) and the average value of turnover (-35%) are almost the same, in Trincomalee district, denoting very little increase in the prices of goods and/or quantitative reduction in consumption. On the other hand, in Ampara and Batticaloa districts, despite the drops in the average number of customers (-5% and –13% respectively), the daily average turnover has increased by 16% and 10% respectively, which is due to the rise in prices of goods.
Overall, the foregoing figures indicate that despite the drops in outputs/clients of various sectors, higher prices fetched by their produce and goods sold have partially or more than proportionally compensated for the losses in volume. Trincomalee district is the only district that has experienced drops in both the volumes and values of output/trade. However, the drops in the volumes have been higher than the values, because of price rise.
Change in the price of produce
The results in the previous two sections are vindicated by the results of this section. That is, the average prices of both paddy and fish have increased significantly, and the average number of employees in trading has dropped significantly now, compared to prior to the resumption of the conflict.
The average price of paddy has increased significantly in Trincomalee district (by 22%) and marginally in Ampara and Batticaloa districts (by 4% and 8% respectively) compared to the pre-conflict time. The increases in prices are due to drops in output/supply. Further, higher prices of paddy have increased the values of output, and thereby partially compensated for the losses in output.
Similarly, the average price of fish has increased significantly in Ampara and Batticaloa districts, and enormously in Trincomalee district among respondents. That is, the average price of fish has increased by 27% in Ampara, by 30% in Batticaloa, and by 182% in Trincomalee. This price comparison pertains to just one variety of fish only. The enormous rise in the average price of fish in Trincomalee is inadequately reflected in the average value of fish catch, presumably because the price comparison involved is just one variety but the total value incorporated all varieties.
The average number of employees in trade establishments dropped significantly in Ampara and Trincomalee districts, but there was no change in Batticaloa district among respondents. That is, the average number of employees dropped by 19% in Ampara and by 56% in Trincomalee. It is interesting to note that, in both Ampara and Trincomalee, the drops in the average number of employees (-19% and –56% respectively) are higher than the drops in the average number of customers (-5% and -33% respectively). However, in Batticaloa, despite a 13% drop in the daily average number of customers, there was no change in the number of employees.
These results reveal that, in Ampara and Trincomalee, traders have laid off more staff than warranted, whereas Batticaloa traders have not laid off any staff at all. This contrasting behaviour of traders may indicate that traders in Ampara and Trincomalee are less optimistic about any change in the present situation, whereas traders in Batticaloa are optimistic about a change, and therefore have retained their staff.
Market accessibility
Accessibility to market to sell/buy their produce/inputs is a severe problem faced by farmers, fishmongers, and traders in all three districts, except the fishermen of Batticaloa. Due to numerous security checkpoints along the major and minor highways throughout the Eastern Province, transport of goods within the province as well as to Colombo and other parts of the country is severely restricted. Besides, there are considerable losses incurred due to unloading and reloading of perishable goods such as fish at various security checkpoints.
All the 7 respondent paddy farmers in Trincomalee district opined that there is no easy access to market their produce and buy their inputs. Similarly, 4 out of the 6 and 6 out of the 9 respondent paddy farmers in Ampara and Batticaloa districts respectively also indicated lack of easy access to markets.
Among fishermen, 7 out of the 8 respondents in Trincomalee and 6 out of the 9 respondents in Ampara indicated lack of easy access to markets.
However, all the respondent fishermen (6) in Batticaloa opined that there is easy access to markets. All the traders in Ampara (5) opined that there is no easy access to markets in Colombo and other parts of the country to purchase goods.
Further, 4 out of the 5 respondent traders in Batticaloa and 4 out of the 7 in Trincomalee indicated lack of easy access to markets in Colombo and other parts of the country
According to knowledgeable sources, prior to August 2006 (i.e. prior to the closure of A9 highway in the North), about 45-50 buses were in operation daily between Trincomalee and Vavuniya carrying both passengers and cargo. However, since the intensification of the conflict in August 2006 the buses in operation have declined drastically to less than five a day. Besides, there is stringent checking of lorries and buses carrying cargo from the Eastern Province to Colombo and other parts of the country.
Nevertheless, the share of traders having no easy access to Colombo and other markets was least in the Trincomalee district.
(http://www.dailymirror.lk/2007/10/02/feat/04.asp)
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