From Thoppigala to city walls

Despite what the international community was told, the Southern psychology was being prepared and seasoned for a long drawn out war, the main purpose being to keep the people away from looking at economics of living. With that the CFA though considered vlid purely on the technicality that neither party to the agreement has informed the Norwegians they are backing out of the CFA, it is in every way, “Eelam War IV” now. There seems to be no turning back, even after Brattskar’s visit to Killinochchi last week. With the heat that’s on with official ceremonies, victorious melodies and media frenzies, this government would have to show some thing more and bigger than Thoppigala to survive. And there is nothing as large as the North and the Wanni to talk of, to contain the economically battered South.

The walls in Colombo, if not in other cities and towns have gone too scarce for posters that keep coming out like patriotic Tsunamis. Some don’t even have any ownership and some organisations sound obviously too fake to believe. There were the obvious ones from the JVP and the JHU too. All, competing between each other to be the best “patriotic salute” for the war heroes who defeated Tigers and their “Eelam dream”. Yet it is more than doubtful how much of those sentiments are actually indicative of the public mood. Often and almost always, these poster maniacs take upon themselves the total right to represent the people. Worst of all, they thereafter expect the people to accept their voice as that of the society too. Just now, the voices on the walls want a total war. Into the Wanni and against the LTTE.

That was any way the direction we were heading since President Rajapaksa was installed in power in 2005 November. The Rajapaksa regime was adamantly sticking to its election promise of a “Unitary State” dominated by the Sinhala South. Therefore, despite what the international community was told, the Southern psychology was being prepared and seasoned for a long drawn out war, the main purpose being to keep the people away from looking at economics of living. With that the CFA though considered valid purely on the technicality that neither party to the agreement has informed the Norwegians they are backing out of the CFA, it is in every way, “Eelam War IV” now. There seems to be no turning back, even after Brattskar’s visit to Killinochchi last week. With the heat that’s on with official ceremonies, victorious melodies and media frenzies, this government would have to show some thing more and bigger than Thoppigala to survive. And there is nothing as large as the North and the Wanni to talk of, to contain the economically battered South.

For the international community and the Tamil political parties and groups tied with the regime, the government is talking of development for the East. Rid of LTTE terrorism, the East would be democratised from the bottom with Local Government elections held towards the end of the year, is the promise. The East would thereafter be economically developed on a 20 year development plan designed under Presidential supervision. But for this government, development plans have no funds. Without funds, the government is looking out for private banks to bail itself out of bankruptcy even at high interest rates. The government would thus call upon the international community to support its anti-terrorism campaign, calling it a certain victory for the world campaign against terrorism. India may want to buy into this bargain to curb the LTTE some more and also more importantly block Sino-Pakistani influence in Sri Lankan politics. It is a pity that Indians have not been very lucky in intervening in Sri Lankan politics before. For the EU and other international partners, what preferences they would have on Thoppigala is rather doubtful.

Thamil Selvam is reported to have told the media, its no big deal for them to abandon Thoppigala a third time. The first was when the IPKF took the East under their control in 1989 and the second was in late 1993 with President Wijetunge’s promise to defeat LTTE terrorists. The most deafening difference between the two “Thoppigala captures” after the IPKF is that President Wijetunge never made it a political carnival and therefore the South was spared of hyped patriotic campaigns. Yet it was a good playing field that was created for all by Late Brigadier Algama, other officers and soldiers and the LG elections held in 1994, saw the EPDP, the TULF, the SLMC, the UNP and the PA contesting. Some LG bodies were even contested by independent groups. The East remained comparatively peaceful for two more elections to be held; the 1994 August Parliamentary elections and thereafter the Presidential elections. What needs to be stressed further is that, all those elections were adequately free and fair with a good voter turn over of around 60 per cent.

There was a seriously important reason for such ground level civil activity after the Wijetunge take over. Once, the LTTE was swept away, there were no paramilitary groups left to mar the cleaned up environment. Only the government security forces and the Police remained with arms, in the East. Mobility of the people with a sense of security is a necessary pre-requisite for free elections to be held. That environment was created and it was easy for other state organisations to function and for non state, civil society organisations to move about with adequate safety. That was the East, after its capture under President Wijetunge.

This indispensable environment where no one runs around with arms other than the state security forces and the Police, is the most conspicuous difference in the East this time. Karuna will not be an idle observer in the East. He represents a power bloc that would now want to entrench itself further in Eastern politics. The signs are already there. The EPDP that tried to move into the space created by the take over of the East was curtly cut short by Karuna. That compelled Douglas D. to come to terms with Karuna as to who would “Boss” around the Eastern polity. How long such patching up would hold, will again be decided, if the government declares LG elections. Beside state security forces and the Police, all of them will be there in the East to wield their authority in competition with each other and against each other.

Within such rivalry too the previously displaced Muslim farmers would now want their cultivation plots cleared out for themselves. The capacity, or rather the will of the government to intervene in such volatile issues is another that would decide the sympathy of the Muslim leadership in the East. With JHU claims of ancient Buddhist presence in the East, one wouldn’t be surprised if this government plans to settle Sinhala farmers in disputed land. In such a scenario where neither the international community nor the Indians would have little say, who would vote for whom in an election?

Unfortunately for the JVP, what ever the outcome of the East in months to come, they are trapped within the present hyped patriotic campaign. In fact with their posters and public meetings the distance they tried to maintain with the Rajapaksa regime has once again closed in. Now, with the government promising a clean, terrorist free Sri Lanka on the heels of the Thoppigala victory, the JVP can not afford to let the JHU and Rajapaksa’s SLFP to ride this wave of military success without them. They do have a legitimate claim to be on that platform. It was they who slogged since the CFA was signed in February 2002 to forge the Southern Sinhala social psyche that eventually brought Rajapaksa to Presidency.

In all probability, LG elections and development for the East, marching into the Wanni and decimating the LTTE, are as good or bad as the Eelam dream. Thoppigala has had its declines twice before and the third time turned into a state carnival, seems still worse. And that’s what the South needs to understand, the posters aside.

(http://www.dailymirror.lk/2007/07/21/opinion/3.asp)