India has stepped up its involvement in Sri Lankan politics making strategic political moves to block LTTE attempts to gain the upper hand through violence. It has intervened in two key areas: 1) internationally, at the meeting of the Co-chairs in Brussels and 2) domestically, patching up the differences between President Mahinda Rajapakse and the Ceylon Workers' Congress leader, Arumugan Thondaman.
It is significant that the four Co-chairs -- US, EU, Japan and Norway -- met the Indian representative separately before issuing the tough warning to the LTTE. The warning comes at a time when the LTTE is escalating its violence against the Sri Lankan Security forces in Jaffna. Any deterioration of the situation in Jaffna is bound to give India a headache it doesn't need now. In a move to pre-empt further escalation of LTTE violence India, according diplomatic sources, has moved to put maximum pressure on the four Co-chairs to act sternly against the LTTE.
The international community too is concerned about the LTTE-sponsored agitation in Jaffna aimed at grabbing Jaffna without an open declaration of war. The current escalation of violence by the LTTE is designed to provoke the Security Forces to retaliate, leading to a full-scale war. The warning from the four Co-chairs to either end the violence immediately or face serious consequences is seen partly as a result of the pressures mounted by the Indians to prevent another war. If there is another war India will be under severe pressure to act one way or another. Indian policy at the moment is to engage in remote control manoeuvres to prevent the LTTE from provoking another war -- an event that can not only destabilize regional security but also lead to serious domestic repercussions.
Incidentally, the outlawed Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) told a press conference (December 15, 2005) that the the Maoists "learnt newer warfare tactics from the LTTE in 1986-87". He said that LTTE gave them training in producing and using landmines. An Indian news source reported yesterday: "Members of Raja Saba today expressed its concern about the claims of Maoist leaders that they had received training from the LTTE and made a strong plea to identify the sources of weapons and ammunitions to the extremist forces in various parts of India and Nepal." This explains why India is keen on containing LTTE: it still poses a serious threat to Indian regional and domestic security.
In Sri Lanka Indian diplomats have taken a more open and active role in bringing the estranged CWC leader, Arumugan Thondaman, back into the fold of the government. Peeved by President Mahinda Rajapakse's move to cut him down to size after he backed Ranil Wickremesinghe in the last presidential election Thondaman openly wooed the LTTE, threatening to form an alliance with the Tigers. President Rajapakse withdrew the security given to him and attempted to split the CWC.
Alarm bells rang in Delhi when it became clear that an alliance of the Indian estate workers and the Tamil Tigers would be too explosive to handle Political observers agree that both President Rajapakse and Thondaman made self-defeating moves without weighing the pros and cons of their hasty actions. Rajapakse's move drove Thondaman to the LTTE. But the greater threat would have been to Thondaman who, in the end, would have been swallowed up by the LTTE if he joined hands with Prabhakaran. As the "sole representative of the Tamils" he would not have tolerated another Tamil rival to his hegemony. Political observers noted that Thondaman's move to join hands with the LTTE was like cutting the nose to spite the face.
In any political arrangement with the LTTE Arumugan Thondaman would be assigned the role of playing a second fiddle to Prabhakaran. His shrewd grandfather, S. Thondaman, the founder of the CWC, always kept a healthy distance from the Jaffna-centric politics fearing that the Indian estate workers would lose their identity and their independence if they worked under the hegemony of Jaffna Tamils who had traditionally looked down on the Indian Tamils as "coolies". Besides, the Indian Tamils and the Jaffna Tamils do not have common political goals or interests other than sharing a common language. It has also been the long-term objective of the Jaffna leadership to bring them under their wing to boost their numerical strength. But the regional, historical, political and economic differences always kept the two groups apart.
So far it appears that Indian diplomacy has succeeded in persuading President Mahinda Rajapakse to take Arumugan Thondaman to India and the Co-chairs to issue a serious warning to the LTTE. The four Co-chairs combined with the Indians will be too formidable a force for the LTTE to combat. However, it should be noted that neither the threat of the Co-chairs nor the Indian moves have stopped the LTTE from continuing its provocative acts of attacking and killing Security Forces.
The best that can be expected, according to political observers, is the hope of LTTE returning to the negotiating table under international pressure. As stated by Velupillai Prabhakaran, this has been their normal tactic. They will return not to negotiate peace but to bargain for more concessions and to buy some more time to escalate the next round of violence.
At the moment the stumbling block is the venue. Obstructing peace talks with ever increasing demands has also been their regular tactic. The LTTE banks on the knowledge that the international community will not go beyond issuing warnings or imposing travel bans, or even banning them. The LTTE has survived all these moves knowing that the four Co-chairs will not crack down heavily to cripple them. In fact, Norway, one of the four Co-chairs, is the base for collecting funds and persecuting non-LTTE Tamils or threatening them with death.
The LTTE agents have also been given free licence to use the Royal Norwegian emblem to be used on LTTE website in Norway despite protests to the Norwegian government. For instance, Nitharsanam, a website sponsored by the Norwegian government, foreshadowed the assassination of Lakshman Kadirgamar. Lakshman Kadirgamar was a leading critic of Norway's role in the peace process. Norway-sponsored Nitharsanam questions Norway's credibility as a peace-maker, peace-monitor and a member of Co-chairs.
According to political observers the text of the communiqué issued at the latest Brussels meeting of the Co-chairs indicate that the Norwegian influence to protect LTTE interests has been scaled down. Diplomatic sources believe that the Indian presence had to some extent influenced the tone and the emphases in Co-chairs warning. Despite this political observers do not expect any positive outcome other than a routine meeting either in Oslo or Tokyo to impress the international community that the LTTE is keen on peace.
- Asian Tribune -
(http://www.asiantribune.com/show_news.php?id=16515)
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