It would be one full year today since President Chandrika Kumaratunga made the political gamble of the highest order by taking over, through a constitutional coup, the Ministries of Defence, Interior and Media. She also prorogued Parliament.
Since November 3, 2003 she has been making kaleidoscopic changes to the political fabric at regular and sometimes not so regular intervals, making Sri Lanka one of the most unpredictable democracies when it comes to political moves by the administration.
The capricious move by the President culminated in yielding the desired results with her SLFP-led alliance bouncing back to power. This eventually successful move has given her a great degree of confidence to try similar reckless strategies a year later.
The latest in her list of political manoeuvring is the attempt to win over a maximum number of opposition members to justify the controversial move to convene a Constituent Assembly in a bid to abolish the Executive Presidency.
Though she succeeded in mustering the support of sections of minority members (the breakaway section of the SLMC), intervention by lay seniors has so far prevented the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) monk MPs from joining the ruling coalition.
However, for how long these strongmen could wield their authority over the novice clergy MPs, is left to be seen, given the likes of Venerable Uduwe Dhammaloka displaying a willingness to align with the government.
Besides the frantic efforts towards convening a Constituent Assembly even by unprincipled and unjustified means, parallel attempts are being made to extend the duration of the President's term till November 2006. Many options are being pursued to prevent a UNF President taking over the reins.
Even as the debate over the term of the President unfolds, most seem to have forgotten that the President herself had given the answer to this controversial issue when she presented the 2000 draft Constitution bill in August, 2000.
Article 233 (1) (a) of the Bill states:
"the First President under this Constitution …………shall, unless the President earlier vacates office by death, resignation, removal or by reason of the ………..hold office for a period of six years calculated from December 22, 1999."
December 22, 1999 is the day the winner of the Presidential election, Chandrika Kumaratunga was announced. So obviously the President in August 2000, when the Draft Constitution was presented, did not feel that her term should extend till 2006.
But, as her terms now comes to an end, a new argument is put forward by her party seniors and lawyers, based on Article 31 (3A) (d) (1) of the existing Constitution to ensure that she could go on till November 2006 if she so desires.
Article 31 (3A) (d) (1) states "The person declared elected as President at an election held…. holds office for a term of six years commencing on such date in the year in which the election is held (being a date after such election) or in the succeeding year, as corresponds to the date on which first term of office commenced, whichever date is earlier".
The SLFP lawyers and seniors argue that with the election held in December 1999 and the succeeding year being 2000, the corresponding date should be calculated from November 10, 2000 which they claim is the date on which the President actually started her second term. Based on this, they point out that the President's second term will only end in November 2006.
As for the President herself, following her successful move to destabilize the UNF government in November last year on the basis that it compromised national security, she has since been vacillating on her stand on the peace talks, the LTTE and territorial integrity.
Hot on the heels of the 2003 November move, the President called on the then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe for talks aimed at adopting a bipartisan approach and also instantly changed her hostile stand towards the LTTE.
It was only when she dissolved parliament on February 7 that the UNP realized that they had been taken for a ride.
In the run-up to the April parliamentary elections, she adopted a strong chauvinistic stand only to switch on to a pro-minority, soft-on-the LTTE stance, immediately after the UPFA victory at the elections.
The UNP was torn to pieces by the President and the UPFA strongmen only lip-serviced a 'southern consensus' when the international community demanded such an approach as a condition for their support.
At the inauguration of the National Advisory Council for Peace and Reconciliation (NACPR) once again she changed her course and almost pleaded with the UNP to join hands with the UPFA by taking part in the Advisory Council.
Her latest stand on the North and the East conflict was made public during her address at the opening of the Political Affairs Committee of the NACPR on Monday.
"A resolution to the problems faced by the minority community should be sought while protecting the rights of other communities including that of the majority Sinhala community," the President was quoted as saying.
While the 'other' communities include Muslims - grievances of whom was one of her pet topic during the UNF tenure, on Monday, for reasons best known to herself she appeared to have made a conscious effort not to mention the name of the community.
Perhaps, she would have feared that such a pronouncement would further estrange the Tigers who play hard-to-get. It may have even been interpreted as the government considering a separate Muslim delegation.
However, all signs indicate that the 'resolution' she proposed on Monday required due attention to regionalism within the Tamil community as much as it should be with the other communities.
With Karuna forming a political party with the backing of a massive propaganda network, both local and international, the government too is fast reaching a point where it would be forced to give Karuna, his 'due' place in the peace process.
It is very interesting to recall what Karuna had to say about the President's controversial move to take over the Ministries last year, which came just three months before his regionalism call.
"Like smashing the pot when the milk in it is churning into butter, the Sri Lanka President has sabotaged the peace process at a crucial time - at this juncture where we submitted our proposals to take forward the peace talks towards fruition. No one in the world expected her to behave like this at this juncture," Karuna was quoted as saying immediately after the Presidential take over of the Ministries.
"We have to observe the political turmoil in Colombo quite soberly. As you know, our leader has made no comment on the situation - he remains judiciously silent", said Karuna a year ago.
Ironically, three months later he staged the biggest revolt in LTTE history adding a new dimension to the peace process.
However, what he said about the LTTE leader at that point was a fact.
Velupillai Prabhakaran, though he may have preferred to have former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe as the arbitrator of the peace process, at no point during his discussion with Vidar Helgesen on November 13 declared that his organization would oppose the idea of the President at the helm.
Instead he was only emphasizing "the LTTE has to be clear with whom it should continue the peace process with".
What Prabhakaran has to say now, a year later - would only be known at the Maveerar Day - November 26, the day he turns 50.
While the renegade leader Karuna is generally known as a product of Ranil Wickremsinghe's peace process, it was the ruling UPFA which has finally benefited from the move and the presence of Karuna's representative at the forum against LTTE killings last Friday along with the likes of Wimal Weerawansa marks the public entry of the party to democratic politics.
Karuna's regionalism call opened the flood gates and provided a forum for all Tamil leaders who oppose the LTTE to come out against the Tigers more strongly than ever before with the pro-Karuna media giving them maximum publicity.
Seniors in parties like the EPDPand the EPRLF, despite the eternal threats to their lives, are getting much publicity in the pro-Karuna media including its websites.
In addition there is a calculated exposure of the LTTE's insidious activities, especially in Europe, almost forcing certain European states to harden their stance on the LTTE.
It was very unlikely that President Kumaratunga even dreamt of such an anti-LTTE move gaining momentum when she made one of the biggest political gambles on November 3, last year.
However, as in most cases she has been indeed quite fortunate and the ground situation has changed remarkably during the last twelve months to suit her own agendas, especially after Karuna's rebellion.
The challenge thrown by the likes of S.J.V. Chelvanayakam's son Chandrahasan along with EPDP leader Douglas Devananda against the LTTE at last week's forum in New Delhi and the outspoken manner in which representatives of Sri Lanka's political parties and non-governmental organizations spoke at a top level workshop organized by the External Affairs Ministry, also in Delhi a few days before, further substantiates this fact.
The anti-LTTE lobby within the Tamil polity has never been so strong since Eelam war 2.
Against this backdrop, despite the empty state coffers, threats by the JVP and allegations of attempts to destabilize the minority parties, Chandrika Kumaratunga appears to be in quite a strong position with the tide turning in her favour, at least as regards the peace process.
